Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
